The Future is Cloudy for the Boston Celtics

Overshadowed in all the madness surrounding the NFL lockout and MLB trade deadline, don’t look now, but NBA has been in a lockout for over a month now.  The deadline to negotiate a new Collective Bargaining Agreement was midnight on July 1st; and reports indicate the two sides have not progressed much in seeing the situation eye to eye.  It’s almost as though NBA fans are under the assumption that the 2011-2012 NBA season is as good as history.  With NBA stars such as Deron Williams already agreeing in principle to play overseas, it’s apparent not only NBA fans believe the season is in jeopardy.  Having enjoyed the resurgence of the Boston Celtics after reaching rock bottom with an abysmal 24-58 record in the 2006-2007 regular season, the impending NBA lockout is not good news for the C’s present and future.  Let’s take a look at their players under contract over the next two seasons

2011-2012
Kevin Garnett (Age 35)
Paul Pierce (Age 34)
Ray Allen (Age 36)
Rajon Rondo (Age 25)
Jermaine O'Neal (Age 33)
Avery Bradley (Age 21)
Jeff Green (Age 25) (Qualifying Offer)

2012-2013
Paul Pierce (Age 35)
Rajon Rondo (Age 26)
Avery Bradley (Age 22)

The Celtics do also have two rookies out of Purdue University in JaJuan Johnson (27th Overall) and E'Twaun Moore (55th Overall), but none of the rookies drafted in 2011 have been signed.  The absence of a 2011-2012 NBA season will effectively close the waning level of high competition with the C’s current stars (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen), and also hinder the development of the C’s future core (Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, JaJuan Johnson).

The main knock on JaJuan Johnson is his perceived lack of strength.  When Johnson was drafted by the Celtics, fans immediately believed he was the heir apparent to Kevin Garnett.  As the 27th overall pick in a weak 2011 draft, we as fans must temper expectations.  Johnson has however been placed into an excellent situation and has a lot to learn from the Big Three.  Johnson’s development will surrender not only one season of playing in the NBA, but also the coaching and mentoring from one of the best defenders in the NBA in Kevin Garnett.  The clock is ticking on Garnett, as he is on the final season of his contract with no guarantee of being back in 2012-2013 and is not getting at younger having turned 35 on May 19th.

Hypothetically speaking, let’s say there is a lockout and the big three stay intact for 2012-2013, Garnett will be 36, Pierce will be 35 and Allen will be 37.  Nobody in their right mind would continue to deem this trio worthy of one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, so the future is contingent on the continuing development of Rondo, Green and Johnson.  Rondo is obviously viewed as one of the best point guards in the NBA, but we’ve never seen him without a superstar cast.  Does Rondo make everyone around him a better player or is he just a product of his environment?  Green looked lost in a new system after being traded in the controversial Kendrick Perkins trade.  It is evident Green needs a full 82-game season to continue his development under veteran leadership before we deem this trade a total bust.  Johnson is a complete unknown and could be the next Kevin Garnett or he could be as useful as Semih “Automatic” Erden, only time will tell.

If the NBA opts to give up on the 2011-2012 regular season, this could effectively end the era of the Celtics as we know it.  When the Celtics traded for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the 2007 offseason, any objective C’s fan realized the Celtics had a four or five year window with which to work.   Four seasons have passed and we must brace ourselves for a new look Celtic team, especially if the lockout gets the best of the 2011-2012 season.  Tickets are about to become a lot easier to find around town.