Don't Get Caught Up in the Highlight Reels

2010 represented a lost season in the development of the Boston Red Sox CF of the present and future, Jacoby Ellsbury.  Playing just a mere 18 games due to a mysterious recurring rib injury, Ellsbury hit for  a miniscule .192 batting average reminiscent of the days when Darren Lewis used to man CF. 

This offseason when the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford I envisioned a mesmerizing tandem of speed and defense atop the order, similar to what the Seattle Mariners had hoped to have capture with the signing of Chone Figgins to compliment Ichiro Suzuki in 2010. Crawford and Ellsbury have essentially flip flopped the roles I envisioned of them at onset of the season; Ellsbury has put up superstar numbers and has emerged as an MVP candidate, while Crawford has struggled to find his bat in the first year of a 7-year, $142 million dollar contract.

The re-emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Reyes has started to convince some MLB fans that the superstars of future will be an electric combination of speed, slick fielding, and high batting average.  Crawford has been the most consistent member of this budding class of superstar routinely posting a .300 batting average and 50 stolen bases in seemingly every season of his career.

With free agency pending at seasons’ end, Jose Reyes is going to cash in big after having a contract year with the New York Mets and will almost certainly point to the money received by Carl Crawford when negotiating for a new contract.  Ellsbury, a client of the infamous Scott Boras, will almost certainly walk after the 2013 season when he too is eligible for free agency.  Only time will tell, but I suspect Ellsbury will seek a pay day similar to that of his predecessors.

MLB players at the earliest reach free agency in their late 20’s, but more often early 30’s.  It would be a grave mistake for any team to offer Reyes or Ellsbury a contract similar to what Crawford received.  Power almost always projects later into a player’s career than speed and range.  So unless you’re signing a middle of the order bat that will routinely post a line of .300, 30, 100, 100 (Avg., HR, RBI, R) don’t bother handing any batter a contract with an annual salary upwards of $20 million.