Putting Lord Tim Tebow into Perspective

Let me start by welcoming my reader(s) back to GameWinningDrive Sports When I Feel Like It after a semester long hiatus.  I have been enraged and inspired by Jesus Christ quarterbacking the Denver Broncos and find this an appropriate time to express my opinion.

Tebowmania has swept the nation and it's time I put this all into perspective.  Although many overlook Lord Tebow's unorthodox style of play due to his clutch late game ability, this style of play is simply not sustainable in the National Football League.  We have seen this act before; America loves an electric scrambling QB.  I would like to take the opportunity to compare loosely the hype surrounding the 2006 rookie season of Vince Young and the 2011 season of Tim Tebow.  The comparison may not be as apples to oranges as you may think.

Vince Young

QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate                     Att Yds TD Y/A Y/G

8-5-0   184 357 51.5 2199 12 13 66.7                       83  552  7  6.7 36.8 

Tim Tebow

QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds  TD Int Rate                    Att Yds TD Y/A Y/G

7-1-0   96    198 48.5   1290 11  2  83.9                    94  517 3  5.5 47.0

Each quarterback was able to string together a series of six consecutive wins and make a believer out of many doubters while posting pedestrian numbers as a quarterback.  Young’s season was so hyped that he was awarded the cover of Madden 2008, what a curse that turned out to be.  Young is now the back-up to Michael Vick on the disaster of a “dream team” in Philadelphia.  What does the future hold for Lord Tebow?

The obvious difference in comparing Young and Tebow, both selected in the first round, is that Tebow does not turn the ball over.   If Tebow maintains his ability to protect the ball I can envision his continued success in the long term, but when you complete less than half of passes attempted, the incompletions are bound to begin hitting enemy hands.  It’s time we temper expectations surrounding Tebow until he proves he can beat the best of the best.

So who exactly have Lord Tebow and the Denver Broncos defeated?  The combined winning percentage of the opponents left in the dust with these continued 4^th quarter theatrics is .429.  Notable defeats include the New York Jets (8-5)—travelling to Denver on a three day week, the Chicago Bears (7-6)—sans Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and division foes Oakland Raiders (7-6) and San Diego Chargers (6-7).

It’s very impressive how much of the credit Tebow is able to garner for his teams’ wins, but like it or not he has rallied the support of a team that started the season 1-4 on the outside looking in.  The national spotlight will be on Tebow this Sunday at 4:15PM facing the paper thin New England Patriots secondary.  This game serves as make or break in solidifying the reputation of Tebow as a legitimate NFL quarterback.  The last time he faced a formidable opponent he was smothered by the Detroit Lions 45-10.  Call me a hater, but I envision more of the same.

Is There Anything Left For Kansas City?

In a flurry of moves before the August 31st waiver trade deadline, the Minnesota Twins have quietly been putting together a curious ten day stretch.  Monday August 15th the Twins traded Delmon Young to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for prospect LHP Cole Nelson and a player to be named later.  Just ten days later on Thursday August 25th the Twins swapped the newest member of the 600 home run club, Jim Thome, in exchange for a player to be named later.  News also broke on Thursday August 25th that the Chicago White Sox put in a waiver claim for OF/DH Jason Kubel.  Just an FYI, the American League Central is comprised of the 1st Place Detroit Tigers, 2nd Place Cleveland Indians, 3rd Place Chicago White Sox, 4th Place Minnesota Twins, and 5th Place Kansas City Royals.  Kansas City must really feel left out right about now. 

Just a quick aside, I’m not exactly sure why there is such hysteria on August 1st once the non-waiver trade deadline has passed when your favorite contending team has failed to pick up a big-time rental player.  Why not reach a compromise and make the firm waiver/non-waiver trade deadline August 15th?  Word has recently broke that Heath Bell was claimed on waivers by the San Francisco giants with flamboyant closer Brian Wilson (and his beard) going on the disabled list on Sunday.  Are you going to tell me that’s not a big time transaction? Chicago White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams could be the driving force behind abolishing the waiver trade deadline especially with outright claims such as Alex Rios in 2009 and Manny Ramirez in 2010, what an avoidable waste of money!

It is precedent in Major League Baseball that the last trade you want to make is one with a team in your division.  So far the return for the two confirmed trades: a Class A Advanced south-paw prospect and two players to be named later.  With Target Field having opened just last season, this flurry of moves may have come out of necessity.  In a very small market, a team such as the Minnesota Twins needs to develop players and make smart transactions to be successful.  The Twins have been one of the best teams in baseball at doing the abovementioned so it seems even more peculiar to me that they would unload so many potentially impactful bats within their own division.

The Twins have operated well enough over the past decade to receive the benefit of the doubt, but I am going to make a brash assumption that the Twins believe the salary relief they are being provided by unloading these players would be more beneficial financially than having these three players in the line-up regularly to draw attendance.  I admit Thome has picked his play up as of late, but it is no coincidence that the Twins waited until his 600th home run before they traded him.

It seems all but certain to me that the Tigers have the AL Central locked up, but tell that to the 2009 Twins who overcame a three game lead with four to play forcing their way to a one game playoff and an eventual playoff berth.  The White Sox might be hoping for more of the same with the addition of a Twins player who had a key part in making this catastrophic meltdown a reality.

Shut Up Roy Williams

Drafted 7^th Overall by the Detroit Lions in the 2004 NFL Draft, Roy Williams entered the NFL as a freakish physical specimen.  Aside from the Lions’ obsession with taking wide receivers in the first round (i.e. Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, and Calvin Johnson) Williams was an intriguing pick because of his potential to stretch the field standing at 6’3” and 215lbs.

It took three seasons, but Williams finally reached his potential in a Pro Bowl 2006 season with 82 receptions for 1,310 yards and 7 touchdowns.  It was apparent that Williams was on the path to stardom for the lowly Detroit Lions.  Over the past four seasons it would be generous to call Williams a shadow of his former self as he accounted for just 175 receptions for 2394 yards.  Williams’ chance at reaching stardom has dwindled and at 29 years old age he is simply a journeymen wide receiver now on his third team.

Williams now makes the headlines not for his play on the field, but his harassment of rookies on the practice field.  Last season Williams tried to force talented rookie wideout Dez Bryant into carrying his pads off the practice field.  Bryant refused, so Williams invited the entire team out to dinner on Bryant’s dime; the final tab: $54,896.  In an encouraging rookie campaign Bryant had the last laugh amassing more receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in three less games played, not to mention Bryant is still with the Cowboys.

A year later in a new city Williams pulled the same antics forcing free agent rookie Jimmy Young out of Texas Christian University to carry his pads off the field.  Young went along with the shenanigans probably realizing Williams will be out of a job anyway if he doesn’t get his act together.  Just six days ago Williams admitted to Comcast SportsNet Chicago that he was not in football shape exclaiming, "(I'm) getting my wind right."  Turns out Williams had Young carry the pads off the field not to continue the tradition of rookie hazing, but rather out of necessity.  Moral of the story, shut up Roy Williams, how about you focus more on getting in shape than keeping your name in the headlines?

One of the Biggest Blunders of the New Century

With the 24^th lowest payroll in Major League Baseball in 2011, it’s no secret that the Florida Marlins don’t have a whole lot of money to work with.  The Marlins have struggled so mightily with attendance this season that they were forced to close their upper deck for the remainder of this seasons’ home games effective July 13^th.  The vicious cycle of young  and budding superstars being shipped to the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies of the world explains why the Marlins opted to trade Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Wills a little over three and one half years ago during the 2007 MLB Winter Meetings.

This trade will go down as one of the worst of first decade of the new century as I have mentioned before on my 1:00PM Monday-Friday on Lasell College Radio (who’s to say I can’t insert some shameless self promotion?).  On December 5th 2007 the Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis in exchange for Cameron Maybin, pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and minor league pitchers Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop.  Free agency was looming for both Willis and Cabrera and the Marlins simply do not have purse to hand these players the contracts they would command on the open market.

Of these six prospects received by the Marlins, three are in the major leagues, (Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and Burke Badenhop) with just one still on the Marlins in Badenhop.  The other three players are going to rot away in the minors as “organizational depth” and live out the rest of their baseball careers taking long bus trips on away games.  The other two players still in the majors were traded just this past offseason; it’s evident the Marlins swung and missed on this trade and the 2010 offseason Maybin and Miller trades proved they were just trying to recoup their losses as best they could.  The Marlins flipped Miller to the Red Sox in exchange for left-handed reliever Dustin Richardson.  Less than 24 hours later on the same day the Marlins then shipped Cameron Maybin to the Padres for two right-handed relievers in Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.

Short version: the Marlins gave away Miguel Cabrera in exchange for three decent middle relievers.  Badenhop has been a reasonable contributor to the team since 2008 and Webb/Mujica have fit in nicely in 2011, but would any GM in his right mind deal one of the top hitters in all of baseball in exchange for relief help?  I speculate the near simultaneous trades of Miller and Maybin on November 13^th last offseason may have come out of both angst and frustration, a clear display Marlins GM Larry Beinfest still has a sour taste in his mouth from this blunder.  I’m not exactly sure how it would be structured, but Major League Baseball may need to work towards a universal salary cap if rip off trades of this magnitude continue to become more and more commonplace at the expense of small-market teams.

Who is the Real Michael Vick?

I have been insisting this for a while now and finally have all the facts before making my full argument:  Michael Vick is not one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the National Football League.  Every time I have posed this idea to one of my friends, acquaintances, or colleagues they have taken my remark as a personal insult and tell me I’m crazy for making such an allegation.  I’ll let the stats back up what I have to say.

I’m addressing this right away: I have no personal vendetta against Vick, but the heinous acts he committed are unfortunately going to follow him for rest of his life.  Vick did the crime and paid the time and I plan only to judge him as a football player.  Continuing, I must admit that Michael Vick came out of prison a more mature and disciplined adult, but how else would Vick improve his public image and be granted permission to rejoin the NFL?  These personality and lifestyle changes rubbed off on Vick in his stellar 12-game regular season posting a sparkling line in 2010: 100.2 QB Rating, 62.6% Completion Percentage, 3,018 Passing Yards, 21 Touchdowns, 6 Interceptions, and 676 Rushing Yards on 100 attempts for 9 Rushing TD’s.  Continuing there is no other player in the NFL quite like Vick and no one else is capable of amassing these stats in a single season; Vick is always a staple on the SportsCenter top-ten plays. 

True to form though, Vick choked in the playoffs to the eventual Super Bowl XXXXV Champions posting a 79.9 QB Rating, 55.6% comp %, 292 passing yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, and 32 rush yds on 8 attempts for 1 rushing TD.  The drop in performance from his regular season is considerable and Eagles fans are certainly going to remember Vick’s botched throw right into the hands of Packers DB Tramon Williams while driving deep into Packer territory with 37 seconds remaining in the 4^th quarter to bring the drive and game to a screeching halt.  Think this performance was an aberration?  Check out Vick’s career line in the NFL Playoffs: 2-4 Record 77.6 QB Rating, 56.0% comp %, 977 passing yds, 5 TD, 4 Int, and 271 rush yds on 37 attempts for 1 rushing TD.  Vick has never had a stellar playoff performance and his playoff win-loss record indicates that.

Let’s look at the last 20 Super Bowl Champion QB’s:

1991 Mark Rypien    2001 Tom Brady

1992 Troy Aikman    2002 Brad Johnson

1993 Troy Aikman    2003 Tom Brady

1994 Steve Young    2004 Tom Brady

1995 Troy Aikman    2005 Ben Roethlisberger

1996 Brett Favre      2006 Peyton Manning

1997 John Elway      2007 Eli Manning

1998 John Elway      2008 Ben Roethlisberger

1999 Kurt Warner    2009 Drew Brees

2000 Trent Dilfer     2010 Aaron Rodgers

Clearly there is a proven formula surrounding winning a Super Bowl and it involves your QB staying in the pocket where he’s best protected.  This serves as a nice segway into my next point: each time Michael Vick scrambles he puts himself and his team in an extremely vulnerable position.  In his six seasons as a Starting QB (2002-2006, 2010), Vick has missed seventeen games due to injury which equates to more than a full season’s worth of games.  Quarterback is widely regarded as the most important position on the field; these signal callers can make or break a season.  As the owner of an NFL franchise do you really want the whole outlook of your season changed because Michael Vick refused to slide while scrambling for a first down?

Let’s dive into Vick’s career numbers: 80.2 QB Rating, 55.3% comp %, 14,609 passing yds, 93 TD, 58 Int, and 4630 rush yds on 653 attempts for 32 rushing TD.  I’ll start with the positives: every time Vick scampers into the open field he averages 7.1 yards per attempt.  This is production you could never expect from a running back and serves as a potential game-changing element.  Now on to the negatives: in the NFL an 80 QB Rating is essentially the make or break line (i.e. Alex Smith at 82.1 and Ryan Fitzpatrick at 81.8), a 90 QB Rating means you could be on the cusp of becoming a star (i.e. Matt Ryan at 91.0 and Matt Schaub at 92.0) , and a QB rating over 100 means you’ve had a stellar season (i.e. Tom Brady 111.0).  Just twice in his career as a starter Vick has had a QB rating over 80 over a full season.  As far as completion percentage goes, 60 percent seems to serve as the make or break line for QB’s, Vick has eclipsed this figure just once in a full season.

By this assessment, the gap between Michael Vick and a young quarterback such as Josh Freeman may not be as far off as you think.  Both players are coming off their first ever quality season statistically, shouldn’t they both be viewed as an unknown for 2011?  There is no real track record of success for either QB and Freeman still has several years of development ahead of him at just 23 years of age.

Obviously 2010 is a complete outlier compared to Vick’s other seasons as a starter, and I must remind baseball fans Brady Anderson once hit 50 home runs in a season, and Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowl QB in 2007.  Has Michael Vick truly turned the corner as a QB or are we going to see more of the same Vick who threw at least one interception over his past six starts (including playoffs) of the 2010 season?  We must forget about all the games we won using Vick in Madden 2004, forget about how much he helped your fantasy team in 2010 and realize Michael Vick has only once been as far as the NFC Championship game.  After assembling and all-star cast, Eagles fans are building themselves up for a Miami Heat esque let down in 2011 at the hands of Michael Vick.

The Future is Cloudy for the Boston Celtics

Overshadowed in all the madness surrounding the NFL lockout and MLB trade deadline, don’t look now, but NBA has been in a lockout for over a month now.  The deadline to negotiate a new Collective Bargaining Agreement was midnight on July 1st; and reports indicate the two sides have not progressed much in seeing the situation eye to eye.  It’s almost as though NBA fans are under the assumption that the 2011-2012 NBA season is as good as history.  With NBA stars such as Deron Williams already agreeing in principle to play overseas, it’s apparent not only NBA fans believe the season is in jeopardy.  Having enjoyed the resurgence of the Boston Celtics after reaching rock bottom with an abysmal 24-58 record in the 2006-2007 regular season, the impending NBA lockout is not good news for the C’s present and future.  Let’s take a look at their players under contract over the next two seasons

2011-2012
Kevin Garnett (Age 35)
Paul Pierce (Age 34)
Ray Allen (Age 36)
Rajon Rondo (Age 25)
Jermaine O'Neal (Age 33)
Avery Bradley (Age 21)
Jeff Green (Age 25) (Qualifying Offer)

2012-2013
Paul Pierce (Age 35)
Rajon Rondo (Age 26)
Avery Bradley (Age 22)

The Celtics do also have two rookies out of Purdue University in JaJuan Johnson (27th Overall) and E'Twaun Moore (55th Overall), but none of the rookies drafted in 2011 have been signed.  The absence of a 2011-2012 NBA season will effectively close the waning level of high competition with the C’s current stars (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen), and also hinder the development of the C’s future core (Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, JaJuan Johnson).

The main knock on JaJuan Johnson is his perceived lack of strength.  When Johnson was drafted by the Celtics, fans immediately believed he was the heir apparent to Kevin Garnett.  As the 27th overall pick in a weak 2011 draft, we as fans must temper expectations.  Johnson has however been placed into an excellent situation and has a lot to learn from the Big Three.  Johnson’s development will surrender not only one season of playing in the NBA, but also the coaching and mentoring from one of the best defenders in the NBA in Kevin Garnett.  The clock is ticking on Garnett, as he is on the final season of his contract with no guarantee of being back in 2012-2013 and is not getting at younger having turned 35 on May 19th.

Hypothetically speaking, let’s say there is a lockout and the big three stay intact for 2012-2013, Garnett will be 36, Pierce will be 35 and Allen will be 37.  Nobody in their right mind would continue to deem this trio worthy of one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, so the future is contingent on the continuing development of Rondo, Green and Johnson.  Rondo is obviously viewed as one of the best point guards in the NBA, but we’ve never seen him without a superstar cast.  Does Rondo make everyone around him a better player or is he just a product of his environment?  Green looked lost in a new system after being traded in the controversial Kendrick Perkins trade.  It is evident Green needs a full 82-game season to continue his development under veteran leadership before we deem this trade a total bust.  Johnson is a complete unknown and could be the next Kevin Garnett or he could be as useful as Semih “Automatic” Erden, only time will tell.

If the NBA opts to give up on the 2011-2012 regular season, this could effectively end the era of the Celtics as we know it.  When the Celtics traded for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett in the 2007 offseason, any objective C’s fan realized the Celtics had a four or five year window with which to work.   Four seasons have passed and we must brace ourselves for a new look Celtic team, especially if the lockout gets the best of the 2011-2012 season.  Tickets are about to become a lot easier to find around town.

Don't Get Caught Up in the Highlight Reels

2010 represented a lost season in the development of the Boston Red Sox CF of the present and future, Jacoby Ellsbury.  Playing just a mere 18 games due to a mysterious recurring rib injury, Ellsbury hit for  a miniscule .192 batting average reminiscent of the days when Darren Lewis used to man CF. 

This offseason when the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford I envisioned a mesmerizing tandem of speed and defense atop the order, similar to what the Seattle Mariners had hoped to have capture with the signing of Chone Figgins to compliment Ichiro Suzuki in 2010. Crawford and Ellsbury have essentially flip flopped the roles I envisioned of them at onset of the season; Ellsbury has put up superstar numbers and has emerged as an MVP candidate, while Crawford has struggled to find his bat in the first year of a 7-year, $142 million dollar contract.

The re-emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Reyes has started to convince some MLB fans that the superstars of future will be an electric combination of speed, slick fielding, and high batting average.  Crawford has been the most consistent member of this budding class of superstar routinely posting a .300 batting average and 50 stolen bases in seemingly every season of his career.

With free agency pending at seasons’ end, Jose Reyes is going to cash in big after having a contract year with the New York Mets and will almost certainly point to the money received by Carl Crawford when negotiating for a new contract.  Ellsbury, a client of the infamous Scott Boras, will almost certainly walk after the 2013 season when he too is eligible for free agency.  Only time will tell, but I suspect Ellsbury will seek a pay day similar to that of his predecessors.

MLB players at the earliest reach free agency in their late 20’s, but more often early 30’s.  It would be a grave mistake for any team to offer Reyes or Ellsbury a contract similar to what Crawford received.  Power almost always projects later into a player’s career than speed and range.  So unless you’re signing a middle of the order bat that will routinely post a line of .300, 30, 100, 100 (Avg., HR, RBI, R) don’t bother handing any batter a contract with an annual salary upwards of $20 million.

The Red Sox Darkhorse MVP

Coming off an impressive string of back to back walk-off wins the Boston Red Sox sit at an American League best 68-41 on pace for 101 wins, which is good enough for first place in treacherous AL East.  The dog days of summer are truly upon us and I thought to myself, who has been the most valuable member of this team through 109 games?  The first names to pop into my head were Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Beckett.  I’ve decided to however take a rather unorthodox outlook on this question and highlight the relief Alfredo Aceves has provided to this team.

In just 199.1 career innings with the Yankees and Red Sox Aceves sports a record of 21-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  Aceves, being the most versatile member of the staff, can ably fill any role you ask of him: starting pitcher, long reliever, and late-inning reliever.  If you asked him I’m sure he’d put on a mask and get behind the plate for you.  Considering that 4 of the 5 members of the Red Sox opening day rotation have been on the disabled list at some point this season, Aceves was able to string together 3 useful starts (and later on 1 spot start) when starting pitching was thin. Returning to the bullpen Aceves proved to be invaluable, cleaning up the messes created by the likes of John Lackey, Kyle Weiland and Andrew Miller.

Of his 27 relief appears this season, over half (14) have been for the span of 2 or more innings.  It is no secret that the Red Sox are winning games because of their offensive output of 5.5 runs per game, which is good for best in the major leagues. Their pitching on the other hand could be described as merely pedestrian, mostly held together by Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and the human glue that is Aceves.  Unfortunately Aceves’ long relief role out of the pen has been so vital to the Red Sox that he could not once again step into the rotation if the acquisition of Erik Bedard and resurgence (sort of?) of John Lackey just aren’t cutting it.  I’m curious to see how the competition for third starter in the playoffs pans out for the rest of the season, but we can rest assured that Alfredo Aceves, the most underappreciated member of the 2011 Red Sox team, will be there to clean up the mess if something goes sour.

An afterthought of the Red Sox key offseason acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, it took until February 8^th 2011 for Aceves to receive an offer he liked.  It brings me great pleasure that the Red Sox took him away from the rival Yankees of all teams.