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Friday, August 5, 2011

Don't Get Caught Up in the Highlight Reels

2010 represented a lost season in the development of the Boston Red Sox CF of the present and future, Jacoby Ellsbury.  Playing just a mere 18 games due to a mysterious recurring rib injury, Ellsbury hit for  a miniscule .192 batting average reminiscent of the days when Darren Lewis used to man CF. 
This offseason when the Red Sox signed Carl Crawford I envisioned a mesmerizing tandem of speed and defense atop the order, similar to what the Seattle Mariners had hoped to have capture with the signing of Chone Figgins to compliment Ichiro Suzuki in 2010. Crawford and Ellsbury have essentially flip flopped the roles I envisioned of them at onset of the season; Ellsbury has put up superstar numbers and has emerged as an MVP candidate, while Crawford has struggled to find his bat in the first year of a 7-year, $142 million dollar contract.
The re-emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Reyes has started to convince some MLB fans that the superstars of future will be an electric combination of speed, slick fielding, and high batting average.  Crawford has been the most consistent member of this budding class of superstar routinely posting a .300 batting average and 50 stolen bases in seemingly every season of his career.
With free agency pending at seasons’ end, Jose Reyes is going to cash in big after having a contract year with the New York Mets and will almost certainly point to the money received by Carl Crawford when negotiating for a new contract.  Ellsbury, a client of the infamous Scott Boras, will almost certainly walk after the 2013 season when he too is eligible for free agency.  Only time will tell, but I suspect Ellsbury will seek a pay day similar to that of his predecessors.
MLB players at the earliest reach free agency in their late 20’s, but more often early 30’s.  It would be a grave mistake for any team to offer Reyes or Ellsbury a contract similar to what Crawford received.  Power almost always projects later into a player’s career than speed and range.  So unless you’re signing a middle of the order bat that will routinely post a line of .300, 30, 100, 100 (Avg., HR, RBI, R) don’t bother handing any batter a contract with an annual salary upwards of $20 million.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

The Red Sox Darkhorse MVP

Coming off an impressive string of back to back walk-off wins the Boston Red Sox sit at an American League best 68-41 on pace for 101 wins, which is good enough for first place in treacherous AL East.  The dog days of summer are truly upon us and I thought to myself, who has been the most valuable member of this team through 109 games?  The first names to pop into my head were Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Josh Beckett.  I’ve decided to however take a rather unorthodox outlook on this question and highlight the relief Alfredo Aceves has provided to this team.
In just 199.1 career innings with the Yankees and Red Sox Aceves sports a record of 21-2 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  Aceves, being the most versatile member of the staff, can ably fill any role you ask of him: starting pitcher, long reliever, and late-inning reliever.  If you asked him I’m sure he’d put on a mask and get behind the plate for you.  Considering that 4 of the 5 members of the Red Sox opening day rotation have been on the disabled list at some point this season, Aceves was able to string together 3 useful starts (and later on 1 spot start) when starting pitching was thin. Returning to the bullpen Aceves proved to be invaluable, cleaning up the messes created by the likes of John Lackey, Kyle Weiland and Andrew Miller.
Of his 27 relief appears this season, over half (14) have been for the span of 2 or more innings.  It is no secret that the Red Sox are winning games because of their offensive output of 5.5 runs per game, which is good for best in the major leagues. Their pitching on the other hand could be described as merely pedestrian, mostly held together by Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and the human glue that is Aceves.  Unfortunately Aceves’ long relief role out of the pen has been so vital to the Red Sox that he could not once again step into the rotation if the acquisition of Erik Bedard and resurgence (sort of?) of John Lackey just aren’t cutting it.  I’m curious to see how the competition for third starter in the playoffs pans out for the rest of the season, but we can rest assured that Alfredo Aceves, the most underappreciated member of the 2011 Red Sox team, will be there to clean up the mess if something goes sour.
An afterthought of the Red Sox key offseason acquisitions of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler, it took until February 8th 2011 for Aceves to receive an offer he liked.  It brings me great pleasure that the Red Sox took him away from the rival Yankees of all teams.